米CBSドラマ『ジェリコー』より
by ZigZag Kai / Maki Taketani
The United States has developed a strategic concept for a potential “US-China war.” In February 2010, the US Department of Defense hinted at its existence, and the “Air-Sea Battle” concept has been progressively disclosed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air-Sea Battle Office. In 2012, explanations of this concept and discussions began with allied nations. This strategy has now evolved into what is referred to as “American-style asymmetric warfare.”
These have been translated into Japanese and published on the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Staff College website, MSDF Strategy Research. During the April 2012 inauguration of the second phase of “Association for Change,” Mr. Yoichi Iha, former Mayor of Ginowan City and a national coordinator of the Okinawa Opinion Ad Campaign, used this data to highlight the threat of a “US-China war” (see Monthly “Commons” Issue 71). With the September 19 forced approval of the Security Legislation (essentially “war legislation”), this threat is becoming increasingly real.
The Air-Sea Battle concept promoted by the US military is based on the following assumptions.
China, with inferior forces compared to the US, would likely launch a large-scale preemptive strike against the US and its allies’ forward-deployed bases (such as military bases in Okinawa) and US carrier strike groups in the Western Pacific. This strategy might involve ballistic missiles, anti-satellite weapons, cyberattacks, and guerrilla tactics alongside conventional forces.
The war might occur when China initiates an “anti-access/area-denial” (A2/AD) strategy, aimed at blocking the approach of enemy fleets and delaying their operations. The US strategy is to conclude the war before it escalates into a large-scale nuclear conflict.
Once a war starts, it rarely concludes as intended. Both sides may escalate military actions and expand their forces to achieve their objectives, making the outcome unpredictable and potentially leading to a prolonged conflict.
Even if both sides intend to limit the war to conventional means without nuclear weapons, this may not go as planned. If one side uses a tactical nuclear weapon to offset its disadvantages, the other side might respond in kind. What starts as a “local war” could escalate, involving missile strikes on each other’s homelands, leading to prolonged and expanded conflict.
For example, during the Korean War in 1950, US Far East Commander Douglas MacArthur proposed a nuclear strike on China, which was aiding North Korea, to President Truman. Although the proposal was rejected and MacArthur was dismissed, the potential for a nuclear war was a frightening reality. Considering today’s massive nuclear arsenals, the idea of a US-China war is terrifying.
In the “Air-Sea Battle” concept, attacking mainland China was once considered. However, China’s mainland has significant depth, making it challenging to neutralize. Moreover, if the US were to attack China’s rapidly militarizing mainland, there would be a risk of Chinese ballistic missiles striking the US mainland during the prolonged attack. As a result, the strategy was revised into what is now called “American-style asymmetric warfare.”
The strategy begins by preventing the Chinese Navy from departing the Yellow Sea and reaching Taiwan’s eastern coast. At the outset of the war, China is expected to launch attacks on US bases scattered across the Western Pacific. Hundreds of missiles targeting each base would render them inoperable, forcing the US military to abandon the bases and retreat. In other words, the US military does not intend to defend Japan at all.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense is relocating SDF missile units to Miyakojima and Ishigakijima while building radar bases on Yonaguni Island. The purpose is to target the Chinese Navy heading toward Taiwan. In short, the SDF’s mission in the Nansei Islands is not to defend Japan but to defend Taiwan, under the US strategy against China.
According to this “American-style asymmetric warfare” strategy, once a war breaks out, Japan, the Nansei Islands, and their surrounding waters are expected to become the battlefields. Neither the US nor China plans to directly attack each other’s mainland; instead, they envision fighting in the “limited regions” of Japan and Okinawa while staying in their respective safe zones.
Thousands of missiles from both countries would turn Japan into a scorched land. During World War II, Okinawa became a “shield” for mainland Japan, resulting in 200,000 deaths. This time, the entirety of Japan will act as a “shield” for the US, on a scale hundreds of times larger in area.
In 2012, the “Yama Sakura 61” joint command post exercise was conducted with 6,000 troops from the US Army and the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, based on a scenario where Chinese-Korean coalition forces land in Tottori and advance to occupy Osaka. This exercise aligns with US strategy. However, it overlooks a critical point: the route from the landing site to Osaka passes through multiple nuclear power plants.
In the event of war, these nuclear facilities would undoubtedly become military targets. If nuclear plants are destroyed, areas could become uninhabitable for thousands of years, potentially turning Japan into a “ghost state.” Even a victorious war would be meaningless in such a scenario. Exercises should consider the “worst-case scenario” to have any value. Ignoring inconvenient obstacles in “optimistic exercises” is pointless.
Japan has maintained peace by trusting in the “justice and faith of the peace-loving nations” (Preamble to the Japanese Constitution). Peace has never been achieved through US-Japan security arrangements or the US military. “Peace through force” is inherently fragile, as seen in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
However, the Abe administration approved collective self-defense and forcibly passed 11 security-related bills in both houses of the Diet. This transforms the SDF from a “self-defense force” into an “offensive military” ready to act as mercenaries for the US military.
The Obama administration warmly welcomed Abe’s proactive militarization policies, especially after announcing significant reductions in troops and the defense budget in February last year.
The US Army is being reduced from 520,000 to 440,000 personnel. In contrast, the Chinese Navy launched 50 new ships last year, increasing its annual military budget to nearly one-third of the US.
For the Obama administration, Abe’s militarization initiatives came at an ideal time to offset the reduction of 80,000 US troops by shifting responsibilities to the SDF.
In the future, the SDF will operate under US global strategies in East Asia, the Middle East, Somalia, and other battlefields worldwide. They will act under US command, killing “enemies” in place of US troops and dying in their stead, essentially as mercenaries.
The risk of the SDF participating in wars, killing, and dying is imminent. We must prevent the SDF’s involvement in wars! Fight for the repeal of the “war legislation”! Overthrow the Abe administration! Unite all forces beyond party and organizational barriers to topple the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition!
Maki Taketani (ZigZag Kai)